3X Long Labubu
Long-Term Investor, Hobby Trader
Slowing AI capex growth, even without a peak in total spending, remains a 2027 risk for semiconductor stocks. An outright spending peak would be much worse; the next earnings season will test the view against company guidance. Slower FOMO buildout could help semis longer term by spreading demand over more years, and resilient EPS could restore growth-stock valuations to some names. A rebound into January is still the nearer-term expectation. x.com x.com
Democratic governors in key data-center states could delay permits, power and semiconductor revenue. A Democratic governor in Texas should trigger a bigger selloff, with underwater holders selling into any bounce. The expected post-midterm SOXX rebound is less certain; it may take time to find a bottom before Anthropic's IPO. Semis remain bearish for 2027, when they could trade at no more than 10-15 times forward earnings, but shorting them while oversold now has poor risk/reward. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Michael Ball
Macro Strategist at Bloomberg News
The question now isn't necessarily 27, which looks more secure for a lot of these guys, as far as the backlogs, the prepayments and the sort of confidence we have in the earnings, it's 28. ... The worry is new projects. And that means 28 earnings. podtrac.com
AlvaSupportsArgues backlogs and prepayments make 2027 earnings more secure, shifting new-project risk toward 2028 and supporting the thesis’s allowance for resilient EPS despite slower capex growth.
Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
"We have 10 times as much qualified demand as available capacity through the end of 2027, and demand for 2028 is already several times larger than our available capacity, even before we have brought it formally to market." ... -Michael Intrator, CEO of cloud-computing company CoreWeave, on yesterday's earnings call. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesReports qualified demand at 10× available capacity through end-2027 and several times capacity for 2028, strengthening the case for continued expansion; qualified demand is distinct from committed customer contracts.
Reuters
Global News Agency
"The good news: the AI trade no longer looks crowded in the short-term. The bad news: this signal isn't washed out enough to buy equities on positioning alone," Marshall said. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedShort-term AI crowding has eased, but positioning alone does not yet support a buy; this is mixed evidence for a rebound into January, not a change to the 2027 capex risk.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
CEO Michael Intrator outlined a strategy to work around that pressure. ... A large share of the company's capital spending is being funded via prepayments and deposits from customers. Those payments would total about $9 billion in the next three months alone, he said. ... Even so, the company will still need capital markets to play ball. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedExpects about $9 billion in customer prepayments and deposits over three months, supporting near-term capex despite costly bond funding; continued capital-market access remains necessary.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
J.P. Morgan analysts say. ... the company is moving toward self-funding, and has shown a robust plan to become less reliant on borrowing, the analysts say. Margins are increasing and customers are increasingly prepaying for contracts, while the company's asset-backed debt remains strong, they say. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesArgues rising margins, increasing customer prepayments and strong asset-backed debt put CoreWeave on a path toward self-funding, reducing the risk that financing constraints force investment cuts.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
CoreWeave said Tuesday that its revenue backlog reached $132.5 billion at the end of September, up from about $104 billion three months earlier. Executives gave a forecast of around $4.8 billion of revenue for the current quarter, above analysts' projections. The problem for CoreWeave, though, is that it will need more capital to reach its full potential and become profitable, and that capital doesn't look readily available. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedBacklog rose to $132.5 billion from about $104 billion in a quarter, supporting demand; the article argues scarce additional capital could constrain the expansion needed to serve it, reinforcing capex-growth risk.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Global semiconductor sales hit almost $173 billion for September, up more than twofold year over year, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesGlobal semiconductor sales reached almost $173 billion in September, more than double a year earlier, strengthening the realized-demand backdrop against which coming company guidance will test the slowdown thesis.
First Squawk
Financial Audio News Service
Siemens Energy AG expects its profit margins to rise to as much as 22% by 2030, driven by surging global demand for gas turbines, transformers and power-grid equipment. The German energy equipment maker forecasts annual revenue growth of up to 14% through fiscal 2030, supported by rising electricity demand from artificial intelligence infrastructure, data centers and electrification. x.com
AlvaSupportsForecasts up to 14% annual revenue growth through fiscal 2030, supported by AI, data centres and broader electrification, strengthening the case for infrastructure demand lasting beyond the near-term buildout.
Zephyr
AI & Semiconductor Analyst at Citrini Research
[Anthropic] "The Q4 guide is ~$19.3B, or ~$77B annualized, versus $81B of October ARR" I think they will beat this but December won't be a good month. x.com
AlvaMixedCites a $19.3 billion Q4 guide, or $77 billion annualized, against October’s $81 billion run rate; expects a beat but a weak December, offering mixed evidence on revenue momentum underpinning AI investment.Reuters
Global News Agency
These investors withdrew a net $49.77 billion from equities in South Korea, Taiwan, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines — the largest monthly net outflow since June — according to LSEG. ... So far this month, foreigners have offloaded a further $22.6 billion from these markets. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesForeign investors sold another $22.6 billion across seven Asian equity markets in November after $49.77 billion in October, showing continued regional selling pressure that challenges the nearer-term rebound.Reuters
Global News Agency
CoreWeave, the firm at the centre of AI bubble fears, showed the boom isn’t short of customers. ... The AI cloud company even forecast a path to profitability in the first half of 2028. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesForecasts a path to profitability in the first half of 2028, strengthening the case that AI infrastructure growth can translate into improved returns and support continued investment.
Bloomberg
Business and Financial Information and News Platform
Cohere CEO Aidan Gomez pushed back on concerns about overbuilding AI computing capacity, saying his startup faces a daily struggle to procure the power it needs to run its operations. x.com
AlvaChallengesReports a daily struggle to secure power for Cohere’s operations and argues against AI compute overbuilding, providing company-specific evidence of unmet demand that tempers the outright spending-peak risk.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Hyperscaler capex should remain high at around $1 trillion next year, but will provide less support to GDP as growth slows from about 100% this year to 25% next year, Moody's adds. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsExpects hyperscaler capex growth to slow from about 100% in 2026 to 25% in 2027 while spending remains around $1 trillion, supporting the thesis’s growth-deceleration risk without an outright spending peak.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Chief Financial Officer Yoshimitsu Goto said ... now isn't the time to invest aggressively, pointing to big stock-market declines and the widening of credit spreads. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsArgues now is not the time to invest aggressively because stock markets have fallen and credit spreads have widened, supporting the risk that financing conditions curb AI investment growth.Nitin Agrawal
Chief Financial Officer of CoreWeave
Should we choose to focus only on our committed backlog, we would expect CapEx for 2027 to remain in line with our 2026 CapEx investment, while revenue and EBITDA grow significantly.
AlvaSupportsA backlog-only scenario would keep 2027 capex flat versus 2026 while revenue and EBITDA grow significantly, supporting the risk of spending-growth deceleration even as infrastructure monetization improves.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Top Republicans and Democrats said this week that they hope to include three proposed measures making it more difficult to send artificial-intelligence chips around the world in a stalled defense package. ... the proposals could hurt other chip companies including Nvidia competitor Advanced Micro Devices ... Industry executives say the measures would have a chilling effect on any export deals, particularly if rules mandating chip tracking become law. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsBipartisan lawmakers seek to add three export-control measures to a stalled defense package, creating a legislative route for restrictions that could cost chipmakers billions in revenue; passage remains uncertain.
Fireside Alpha
Business, Technology and Investing Interview Digest
Oracle CFO ... Hilary Maxson (CFO): ... We have five large data centers under construction already in the US. One of those is nearing completion, so there’s four primarily that are under construction today. ... So it’s part of the seven gigawatts we’re bringing online, but not all. ... we think that we have all of the scenario planning in place in order to bring those data centers online in a timing that allows us to achieve the commitments that we gave. x.com
AlvaChallengesExpects five large U.S. data centers already under construction, one nearing completion, to come online in time to meet Oracle’s commitments. The sites account for part of its planned 7 GW.Reuters
Global News Agency
South Korea's exports increased 111.9% in the first 10 days of this month from a year earlier, led by a 331.2% surge in chip sales, customs data showed on Wednesday. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesSouth Korean chip export sales rose 331.2% year over year in November 1–10, showing strength in near-term semiconductor shipments.
CoreWeave, Inc.
AI Cloud Infrastructure Provider
Within Texas, specifically, the overwhelming majority of our power is either online or fully permitted and under construction.
AlvaChallengesCoreWeave says the overwhelming majority of its Texas power is online or fully permitted and under construction, reducing the share of its Texas buildout exposed to delays in new approvals.Fireside Alpha
Business, Technology and Investing Interview Digest
CoreWeave CEO says ... “Adjusted operating margin was approximately 1% in Q1, 5% in Q2, and exceeded 10% in Q3. The economics of new business are strengthening as well.” ... “In July, we increased pricing across SKUs by approximately 25%, followed by another 10% increase later in the quarter. Pricing has continued to move higher in Q4, more than offsetting cost increases.” x.com
AlvaChallengesPricing rose about 25% in July and another 10% later in Q3, and Q4 increases have more than offset rising costs. Adjusted operating margin rose from about 1% in Q1 to above 10% in Q3, strengthening infrastructure returns.