David's $BTC thesis: Bitcoin looks asymmetric as selling eases

David

Managing Partner in Energy, Bitcoin Power Law Analysis

10 Nov, 18:48Latest

Bitcoin has absorbed $6.8B of net 30-day selling with limited price damage, holding up better than 58% of comparable periods. Sellers are not gone; 20-day flow momentum is -$296M/day. At $72.8K, 5% above its $69.3K historical P10 and nearly 50% below its $146K power-law trend, it may be one of the market's cleanest asymmetric setups, with ~100% upside to trend. War de-escalation could lower oil and diesel, then inflation and real yields, weakening the dollar and improving BTC flows. x.com x.com x.com

BTC

9 Nov, 23:20

Bitcoin's market value has historically grown faster than cumulative miner revenue, supporting the bullish valuation-reset case as security holds up. A monthly fit estimates a 1.122 exponent (95% interval 1.026–1.217; R² 0.968), not proof of causality. With $102B paid to miners, Bitcoin trades at 15.8× that base: above its ~10× historical median but below the 32–64× range cited for prior major tops. Price is near its long-term floor while the structural trend is almost twice as high. x.com x.com x.com x.com

BTC

Eric Balchunas

11 Nov, 11:43

Global Head of ETF Research at Bloomberg, Co-host of Trillions and ETF IQ

Many people forget just how long the 'winter' was for $GLD. ... it (saw 40% of investors bail) and took nearly a DECADE to get back to its that aum high again. ... Today it sits at nearly 3x that initial high water mark and has tied SPX perf since launching and is considered a wildly successful ETF category. My point: assets without cash flows run purely on sentiment and it changes. To me this is the closest analog to bitcoin ETFs and how to think about them. x.com

AlvaMixedThe analogy would allow eventual BTC flow recovery while warning that the asymmetric setup could take far longer to pay off.

Dow Jones

11 Nov, 09:10

Real-Time Financial News Wire

Those odds have now reversed, says Derive.xyz's Nick Forster. "Our options market is pricing a 31% chance of Bitcoin finishing below $70K, compared with just 26% for a finish above $80K," he says. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesOptions imply a 31% chance of Bitcoin below $70K by Christmas versus 26% above $80K, weakening near-term confidence in the asymmetric setup near the $69.3K historical P10.

Dow Jones

11 Nov, 07:25

Real-Time Financial News Wire

Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October compared with the prior month, following a 0.6% increase in September, and above the 0.3% forecast by economists in a Wall Street Journal survey. High inflation increases the prospects for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bitcoin and gold. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesOctober CPI rose 0.4% versus 0.3% expected, adding rate-hike pressure on Bitcoin through higher holding opportunity costs and working against the setup’s lower-inflation catalyst.

Dow Jones

11 Nov, 07:01

Real-Time Financial News Wire

The possibility of a bearish long-term scenario for bitcoin can't be ruled out, writes ING analyst Roelof-Jan van den Akker. ... "While prices could temporarily stabilize within the $62,660-$58,020 support area, such consolidation would not necessarily invalidate the risk of a subsequent and more substantial decline," he writes. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesThe technical warning of only temporary support at $62,660–$58,020, with further downside possible, challenges the asymmetric setup by placing downside risk well below the $69.3K historical P10.

Matt Hougan

11 Nov, 00:58

Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management

I think we bottomed in June. What's been remarkable to me over the last handful of months is just how resilient crypto has been. ... there have been high inflation prints. There's been rising expectations for the Fed to height rates and Bitcoin and other crypto assets are still hanging in there just fine. youtube.com

AlvaSupportsThe view that Bitcoin bottomed in June and has held up through high inflation and rising rate-hike expectations strengthens the resilience premise behind the asymmetric setup.

Steve Hou

7 Nov, 21:28

Head of Research at Silicon Data, AI Compute Markets

Texas alone accounts for roughly a quarter of the planned U.S. pipeline; states with pause or heavy-restriction pledges hold around 40%. ... The AI infrastructure cycle continues, but at a slower pace and higher cost than the pre-election baseline. x.com

AlvaSupportsWith roughly 40% of the planned U.S. pipeline in states pledging pauses or heavy restrictions, the forecast of costlier AI capacity supports Bitcoin’s relative case against hyperscalers that must spend to scale.

Fireside Alpha

7 Nov, 21:02

Business, Technology and Investing Interview Digest

Chamath explains ... “I think what it means is we’re going to see a slowdown. And I think what that does is it benefits the hyperscalers because they have existing capacity. x.com

AlvaChallengesThe view that a data-center slowdown benefits hyperscalers through existing capacity weakens the argument that their need to spend makes Bitcoin the superior 10-year investment.

glassnode

7 Nov, 18:26

Digital Asset Data, Analytics & Research

Hyperliquid whales are adding to their bitcoin:native shorts. Their net positioning turned short 2 weeks ago after 7 months of being long. Short exposure is now the largest since October 2025. x.com

AlvaChallengesHyperliquid whales’ largest short exposure since October 2025 signals positioning against Bitcoin’s expected year-end rally, weakening confidence in its timing.

Walter Bloomberg

5 Nov, 16:42

Financial News Headlines Aggregator, Not Affiliated with Bloomberg

Bitcoin fell as much as 5.8% to a seven-week low, dropping below $76,000 as Wall Street's technology selloff spread to cryptocurrencies. ... Crypto markets are also facing pressure from the Binance hack, with investors withdrawing $1 billion from spot Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for roughly $900 million of those outflows. x.com

AlvaChallengesThe reported $1 billion in net ETF withdrawals reverses part of the buying contribution needed for the conditional $100K scenario, with roughly $900 million coming from IBIT.

Dow Jones

5 Nov, 11:07

Real-Time Financial News Wire

Derive traders now price in a 55% chance of Bitcoin finishing above $80,000 Friday, versus 5% at its overnight low, and roughly 10% odds of falling below $78,000. The probability of Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 by Christmas rises to 5% from 3.5%, Forster notes. ... The question now is whether it can sustain its recovery once the short covering and hedge unwinding have finished, Forster says. tradingview.com

AlvaMixedRising options-implied odds of $100K by Christmas support the upside scenario, while the recovery’s reliance on short covering and hedge unwinding highlights price drivers beyond net ETF buying.

Eric Balchunas

4 Nov, 16:47

Global Head of ETF Research at Bloomberg, Co-host of Trillions and ETF IQ

[Replying to @17946674: "There are no sellers left in crypto."] Yeah I thought $60k was this “no sellers left” baseline so good sign for the asset that baseline appears to have moved up to $77k ish x.com

AlvaSupportsThe apparent rise in the seller-exhaustion baseline to around $77K supports the premise that further buying could encounter limited supply at lower prices.

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