SurfRanch Vibes's $TSLA thesis: Cybercab out-earns Cybertruck on paid miles

SurfRanch Vibes

Tesla & FSD Commentary

9 Nov, 19:15Latest

Cybercab's paid-mile service will hands-down beat the low-selling Cybertruck in revenue, making Tesla's pivot attractive to investors. At roughly 500,000 paid miles over 10 years, $0.40 fares and $0.30 costs per mile imply about $50,000 lifetime operating profit per car on conservative assumptions; build cost is about $25,000. Ron Baron thinks it could be $400,000-$500,000, while a realistic $200,000 middle estimate implies about $20 billion a year across 1 million cars. x.com x.com x.com

TSLA

7 Nov, 10:35

Tesla would be more profitable if it left automotive entirely. It will probably stop making cars customers want, but that is acceptable from an investor's perspective. x.com

TSLA

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Jon McNeill

10 Nov, 11:00

Co-Founder and CEO of DVx Ventures, Former President at Tesla, Former COO of Lyft

Second lesson of rideshare specifically, but then can be applied more generally, is Lyft and Uber began early on to compete on price. And any business that competes on price ultimately is called a commodity. ... And so once you're competing in a commodity market, now you have no basis from which to collect rents, and so your profit margins collapse. pdst.fm

AlvaChallengesHe argues rideshare price competition collapses margins, challenging whether Cybercab can sustain the assumed $0.40 fare and $0.10 operating profit per paid mile.

Reuters

10 Nov, 11:00

Global News Agency

But sales of Tesla’s stainless-steel, angular truck — once described by MotorTrend magazine as having a “stealth-bomber-refrigerator design theme” — sagged 28% this year through September, to about 11,600 trucks, according to an estimate from research firm Motor Intelligence. tradingview.com

AlvaSupportsEstimated Cybertruck sales of about 11,600 through September, down 28%, reinforce the low-volume baseline Cybercab’s paid-mile revenue would need to beat.

Elon Musk

10 Nov, 09:44

CEO of Tesla, Founder & CEO of SpaceX

Cybercab will do a majority of all passenger miles in any jurisdiction where it is not prohibited by law. x.com

AlvaSupportsMusk forecasts Cybercab will capture most passenger miles wherever legally permitted, supporting the demand needed for Tesla’s paid-mile revenue model.

Palmer Luckey

10 Nov, 05:35

Co-Founder of Anduril Industries, Founder of Oculus VR

[Replying to @14326028: "The top 5 largest ridesharing companies in the world have a combined ~16 million drivers"] Take that ridesharing revenue ($150B+) and subtract the cost of paying 16,000,000 drivers. That is the bet. x.com

AlvaSupportsHe argues eliminating pay for 16 million drivers across a $150 billion-plus ridesharing market is the economic bet behind Tesla’s taxi pivot, supporting the rationale for lower Cybercab operating costs.

Lyn Alden

10 Nov, 01:57

Investment Strategist, Author of Broken Money

[Replying to Nic Cruz Patane: "This is why Tesla is going all-in on Cybercab"] I’ll fade 500k mile standard lifetimes anytime soon. Would require battery and other overhauls multiple times. ... And when it becomes a large market there will be competition. x.com

AlvaChallengesShe disputes standard 500,000-mile lifetimes anytime soon, arguing repeated battery and other overhauls plus eventual competition could erode Cybercab’s projected $50,000 lifetime operating profit.

Jason Calacanis

9 Nov, 19:53

Founder and CEO of LAUNCH, Co-host of the All-In Podcast

I think autonomy will be: gold medal: Tesla with 40%+ market share Silver: uber and their 30 partners taking ~35% Bronze: Waymo going solo with ~25% [ if Waymo and Uber were to join forces for good, they *might* be able to steal the gold from Tesla — might ] x.com

AlvaSupportsA forecast of Tesla winning 40%+ of autonomy supports the scale of its alternative to car sales, though a potential Uber–Waymo alliance could challenge that lead.

Dow Jones

9 Nov, 12:17

Real-Time Financial News Wire

Monday morning, Tesla announced that robo-taxi service would start in San Antonio this week, while adding that the service area was expanding in the original robo-taxi city, Austin, Texas. ... Currently, Tesla robo-taxi coverage is closer to 10% of the U.S. population. ... Still, robo-taxis aren't contributing significantly to Tesla's top and bottom line yet. tradingview.com

AlvaMixedSan Antonio’s launch and Austin expansion advance Tesla’s alternative to car sales, but roughly 10% U.S. coverage and little revenue or profit contribution temper the near-term case for replacing automotive earnings.

Elon Musk

9 Nov, 07:20

CEO of Tesla, Founder & CEO of SpaceX

The Cybertruck order rate far exceeds our production rate. We will try to make as many as possible before shutting down the line in about 8 months, but will have to return deposits for a lot of people. ... This is not a case of Cybertruck being unprofitable, as has been misreported by legacy media, but rather that the opportunity cost of the complexity of Cybertruck is vastly outweighed by the value of incremental Cybercab production. x.com

AlvaMixedMusk argues incremental Cybercab production is far more valuable than retaining Cybertruck complexity, supporting reallocation; his statement that Cybertruck is profitable raises the earnings Tesla would give up.

Brett Adcock

7 Nov, 20:25

Founder of Figure

[Replying to @1891352412524539904: "Sure Tesla absolutely wins when it comes to mass manufacturing of humanoid robots. However, who knows if they've actually made any progress towards a capable robot. They haven't shown anything in several months."] Intelligence will pick the winner. Manufacturing cars gives you almost no benefit ... Making a lot of robots before intelligence, is just making dead bodies. x.com

AlvaChallengesHe argues Tesla’s car-manufacturing experience offers almost no robotics advantage and that intelligence will decide the winner, challenging whether Tesla’s industrial scale can make its pivot succeed.

Elon Musk

7 Nov, 19:39

CEO of Tesla, Founder & CEO of SpaceX

There are efficiency improvements coming that will allow for a 40kWh Cybercab pack. ... If we have to maintain a complex production line, supply chain and allocate engineering for Cybertruck, we can’t use those people or factory space and machinery for scaling Cybercab, which is the vehicle that will PROFOUNDLY transform the world of terrestrial transport! x.com

AlvaSupportsEnding Cybertruck would free scarce staff and factory resources for Cybercab, strengthening the pivot’s rationale; planned efficiency gains would also allow a 40 kWh Cybercab pack, Musk says.

Elon Musk

7 Nov, 18:12

CEO of Tesla, Founder & CEO of SpaceX

The Tesla Cybertruck order backlog is currently far more than we can make before dismantling the line for Cybercab expansion around June/July next year. ... We will add an extra shift to try to get all orders done in time. x.com

AlvaMixedDismantling the line in June/July 2027 backs Tesla’s Cybercab commitment, but a backlog exceeding remaining capacity and an extra shift suggest a greater opportunity cost to exiting Cybertruck.

Dow Jones

6 Nov, 16:04

Real-Time Financial News Wire

"This announcement underscores Tesla's commitment to Robotaxi and is a bullish signal following the recent progress we have already seen in Austin," Morgan Stanley analysts say in a research note. tradingview.com

AlvaSupportsMorgan Stanley views the mid-2027 shift from Cybertruck toward Cybercab output as bullish for Tesla’s Robotaxi opportunity, supporting the case for autonomy-driven stock upside.

Walter Bloomberg

6 Nov, 12:00

Financial News Headlines Aggregator, Not Affiliated with Bloomberg

Elon Musk announced Tesla will wind down Cybertruck production by mid-2027, freeing capacity at Gigafactory Texas for Cybercab robotaxi production. x.com

AlvaSupportsThe reported plan to free Texas capacity for Cybercab by winding down Cybertruck production by mid-2027 supports Tesla’s push to commercialize autonomy.

Reuters

5 Nov, 19:15

Global News Agency

Goldman Sachs analysts estimated this week that Democratic wins at the state and local level are likely to lead to short-term data center moratoria, potentially affecting about 45% of planned US data center capacity expansion. Tesla is also tied to the buildout, with its energy unit pitching storage systems to data center operators. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesThe projected moratoria could delay a source of demand for Tesla’s energy-storage business, weakening its earnings-growth opportunity as data-center construction slows.

Jason Calacanis

4 Nov, 15:20

Founder and CEO of LAUNCH, Co-host of the All-In Podcast

Tesla and Uber will be part of ride sharing growing from 1% of rides to 30% on our lifetime. Those stocks will be 3x in under five years in my model. Both are ~50% undervalued right now x.com

AlvaSupportsThe forecast supports Tesla’s long-term stock upside through a larger ride-sharing market, with a model projecting a tripling in under five years and roughly 50% undervaluation today.

Dow Jones

4 Nov, 11:40

Real-Time Financial News Wire

Hinojosa, on the other hand, made data center opposition a centerpiece of her campaign and says she wants to keep the pause in place until Texas lawmakers enact laws regulating their water and power use. SpaceX's AI data centers are in Tennessee and Mississippi, but Tesla has a supercomputing cluster in Texas. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesKeeping Texas’s data-center pause in place could constrain expansion of Tesla’s local AI computing infrastructure, adding a regulatory hurdle to its autonomy and Optimus buildout.

First Squawk

4 Nov, 12:06

Financial Audio News Service

Uber Q3 2026 Earnings ... Sees About 700 Fully Driverless Vehicles By Year-End ... Sees Over 2,000 Fully Driverless Vehicles In 2027 ... Expects Further Driverless Deployments With Avride In 2027 x.com

AlvaChallengesThe planned driverless fleet expansion would increase competition for Tesla’s Robotaxi business as it works toward commercial scale.

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